The PC Industry: A Warning from History (and a Lesson for Video Collaboration)
Back in the late 1980s and early 1990s, I was in the thick of the personal computer business.
Compaq 286/20s. IBM PS/2 Model 30s with dual 3.5” floppies. If a client’s budget was tighter than a drum, I’d dust off a Tulip, Philips—or heaven forbid—an Amstrad. And laptops? Take your pick: Zenith, Toshiba, or Osborne.
Choice was everywhere. To call it a crowded market would be an understatement of Olympic proportions.
And you know what? It was thrilling. Specs changed monthly. Prices fell constantly. Every month felt like the Cambrian Explosion of computing—wild, messy, and full of bizarre species.
But then reality arrived. Margins collapsed. Prices cratered. Consolidation steamrolled the industry. Innovation slowed to a crawl, and before long, the once-vibrant PC sector was reduced to an enormous, low-margin, logistics-driven slugfest.
Today, only four and a half players remain. Dell. HP. Lenovo. Apple. And the half? Asus—still clinging on.
That’s it. Decades of creative chaos distilled into four logos.
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does enjoy a good rhyme
Déjà Vu in 2025: The Video Collaboration Crunch
Fast forward to today. In 2025, there are 28 companies manufacturing Microsoft Teams Rooms (MTR) video conferencing devices. That’s 28 players fighting over an industry worth less than $5 billion annually.
For context: in 1992, the PC industry was worth $57 billion—equivalent to $130 billion today.
And just as in 1992, innovation is thinning. Products are converging. Differentiation on features is becoming harder by the quarter.
Sound familiar? It should.
The question is simple: what happens to the video collaboration space?
Do we end up with a commoditized race to the bottom, where the cheapest box wins? Or is there a smarter play available?
Lessons from the PC Wars
Let’s rewind. In the 1990s, the difference between an Amstrad and a Compaq was minimal in terms of specs. Yet Compaq—the more expensive choice—won.
Meanwhile, Toshiba made brilliant laptops but still faded away. Premium pricing alone wasn’t enough.
So why did some win while others vanished into the annals of tech trivia?
The winners didn’t obsess over being the cheapest. They built trust. They went global. They offered portfolios, not just products. They gave risk-averse corporate buyers the things that actually mattered:
Service Level Agreements
Global availability
Broad solution sets
Meanwhile, the losers assumed the pie was big enough that everyone could carve out a slice. They offered “me too” boxes, ignored corporate trust, and leaned on channels that weren’t fit for enterprise buyers.
In short: Dell, HP, and Lenovo didn’t win because their boxes were shinier. They won because they made enterprise customers feel safe, supported, and understood.
The Video Collaboration Industry’s Fork in the Road
So, what now for video collaboration vendors, resellers, and distributors?
The market is tiny compared to PCs—even by 1992 standards. And yet the herd keeps piling in. Something has to give.
Here are a few paths forward:
1. Get Big or Go Home
For vendors who want to matter, scale is non-negotiable. Being the “easy button” globally is a powerful narrative for cautious buyers.
2. Be Truly Different
If you can’t be big, be unique. Cisco, for example, positions itself like Apple once did—offering a distinct, premium experience. Owl Labs takes another path with radically different form factors.
Differentiation is survival.
3. Compete Beyond the Product
When products blur together, outcomes matter more. Ask yourself:
Do you have a compelling ESG story? Clients increasingly care.
Using the best recycled plastics? Tell the world.
Got rock-solid, audited financials? Lean into governance.
Manufacturing in high-quality, ethical workplaces? Help buyers sleep at night.
It’s not just about the spec sheet anymore.
4. Sell Scale, Not Specs
Got a management suite that handles massive deployments seamlessly? Lead with that.
Have an ordinary product but an extraordinary sales team? Focus on creating raving fans, not just clients.
Reality Check: Not Everyone Survives
Let’s be blunt: not all vendors will make it. Some already have warehouses full of unsold kit, or share prices that resemble ski slopes.
At some point, the industry will consolidate. Some players will exit gracefully. Others will be dragged out feet-first.
The warning from history is clear: size and specs don’t guarantee survival. Strategy does.
The Big Questions for 2030
Which raises the open questions for all of us in the industry:
How many video collaboration vendors will still be standing in 2030?
What separates a compelling solution from “just another black box with a camera”?
What criteria—trust, governance, ESG, service, scale—will actually decide the winners?
History gives us clues, but not the answers.
Over to You
I’ve shared my view. The PC industry taught us that chaos collapses into consolidation, and that winners aren’t always the ones with the best products—they’re the ones who understood customers’ deeper needs.
What do you think?
How does our industry avoid repeating history—or are we already halfway there?
Drop your thoughts in the comments. Let’s compare notes before the rhyme becomes reality.
Simon Dudley
Technology strategist, bestselling author, and former senior executive at Logitech, Lifesize, and Polycom.
CEO & Founder, Excession Events.
Author of Competitive Intelligence Playbook, The End of Certainty, and Who Put That Idiot in Charge?
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